Independent · Consumer sector · Unaffiliated
Ratings and analysis on the companies you actually buy from.
The list
Coverage universe
Every name I have published a view on, with a 12-month price target and a rating. Click any card for the full write-up.
Methodology
How the ratings work
The scale is absolute, not relative to a benchmark or to the rest of the coverage list. Ratings are reviewed at least quarterly and after any material company event.
| Rating | Expected total return | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Buy | > +25% | High conviction. The market is mispricing something specific and identifiable, and I can name the catalyst that closes the gap. |
| Buy | +10% to +25% | Attractive risk/reward, but either the upside is more modest or the path is less certain. |
| Hold | –10% to +10% | Fairly valued on my numbers. A good business can still be a Hold; price is a separate question from quality. |
| Sell | –10% to –25% | Expectations embedded in the price look too high relative to what the business can deliver. |
| Strong Sell | < –25% | Material downside risk — structural decline, balance-sheet stress, or a thesis I believe is broken. |
| Under Review | — | Rating and target suspended pending new information, typically after an acquisition, restatement, or major guidance change. |
Read the filings, not the headlines
Every report starts with the last three 10-Ks and four 10-Qs, plus the proxy. Segment disclosures and the footnotes usually say more than the earnings release.
Build the operating model
Revenue is driven bottom-up where the company gives me the units: store count, same-store sales, traffic versus ticket, category mix. Margins are built off gross profit per unit, not a percentage assumption.
Check the model against the world
Consumer companies are unusually checkable. Store visits, app rankings, pricing on the shelf, job postings, and channel commentary all serve as a reality test on the model's assumptions.
Value it, then argue against it
A DCF and a comparable-company multiple set the target. Before publishing, I write the strongest case for the opposite rating — if it is more persuasive than mine, the rating changes.
Conviction levels
- High — the thesis rests on a small number of assumptions I can defend in detail.
- Medium — the direction is clear, the magnitude and timing are not.
- Low — an initial view published to be tested and revised in public.
What this is not
- Not a model portfolio, a newsletter, or a trade-alert service.
- No position sizing, no entry or exit prices, no stop losses.
- No coverage initiated for payment, and no company reviews a report before it is published.
Scorecard
Track record
Self-reported and unaudited. Price return only — dividends, fees, taxes, and transaction costs are excluded. Prices are entered by hand and may be stale.
Returns are measured from the closing price on the initiation date to the most recent price recorded on this site, which is manually updated and not a live quote. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and a favourable track record over a short period is not evidence of skill.
About
Who writes this
Why the consumer sector
It is the one part of the market you can walk into. Store traffic, shelf pricing, packaging changes, app downloads, and menu tests are all observable before they show up in a quarterly print, which makes it the best sector to learn genuine fundamental research in rather than just reading someone else's model.
Get in touch
Corrections, counter-arguments, and "your model is wrong because…" emails are all welcome — being publicly wrong and then fixing it is the point of doing this in the open.
Legal
Disclosures & terms of use
By accessing this site you agree to the terms below. If you do not agree, please do not use the site.
The short version
I am not a financial adviser and nothing here is financial, investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. These are one person's opinions, published to build and demonstrate research skill. They are not tailored to you, they may be wrong, and acting on them could lose you money. Do your own research and speak to a licensed professional before making any investment decision.
1. No investment advice
All content on this site — including ratings, price targets, financial models, estimates, commentary, and any other material (together, the "Content") — is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. It reflects the personal opinions of the author as of the date of publication and nothing more.
The Content does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, legal advice, accounting advice, or tax advice, and it is not a recommendation that any security, portfolio, transaction, or strategy is suitable for any specific person. No Content on this site takes into account the investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance, time horizon, or particular needs of any individual reader.
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All investing involves risk, including the complete loss of principal. Equity securities can and do decline in value, sometimes rapidly and without warning, and there is no assurance that any security discussed on this site will perform as described or that any price target will be achieved.
Past performance is not indicative of, and is no guarantee of, future results. Any track record, historical return, or performance figure shown on this site is self-reported, unaudited, hypothetical in the sense that it does not represent the results of an actual account, and excludes dividends, commissions, spreads, financing costs, fees, slippage, and taxes, all of which would reduce realized returns.
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The Content contains forward-looking statements — including price targets, revenue and earnings estimates, margin assumptions, growth projections, valuation multiples, and statements about anticipated catalysts or risks. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical fact. They rest on assumptions about future events that are inherently uncertain, outside the author's control, and frequently wrong.
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The author may hold, and may from time to time acquire or dispose of, long or short positions in the securities of companies discussed on this site, including through derivatives, funds, or index products. Any position held at the time of publication is disclosed in the disclosure line at the foot of the relevant report.
The author may buy, sell, or otherwise change any position at any time, for any reason, without notice and without updating the relevant report. A reader should assume that the author's economic interests may differ from, and may conflict with, their own, and should weigh the Content accordingly.
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The Content is prepared using information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, including public company filings, earnings call transcripts, press releases, and publicly available market data. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or fitness for purpose of any information on this site.
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